Neural network forecasting of air pollutants hourly concentrations using optimised temporal averages of meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations

The new method for the forecasting hourly concentrations of air pollutants is presented in the paper. The method was developed for a site in urban residential area in city of Zagreb, Croatia, for four air pollutants (NO₂, O₃, CO and PM₁₀). Meteorological variables and concentrations of the respective pollutant were taken as predictors. A novel approach, based on families of univariate regression models, was employed in selecting the averaging intervals for input variables. For each variable and each averaging period between 1 and 97 h, a separate model was built. By inspecting values of the coefficient of correlation between measured and modelled concentrations, optimal averaging periods for each variable were selected. A new dataset for building the forecasting model was then calculated as temporal moving averages (running means) of former variables. A multi-layer perceptron type of neural networks is used as the forecasting model. Index of agreement, calculated for the entire dataset including the data for model building, ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 for the respective pollutants. As suggested by the analysis of the relative importance of the input variables, different agreements for different pollutants are likely due to different sources and production mechanisms of investigated pollutants. A comparison of the new method with more traditional method, which takes hourly averages of the forecast hour as input variables, showed similar or better performance. The model was developed for the purpose of public-health-oriented air quality forecasting, aiming to use a numerical weather forecast model for the prediction of the part of input data yet unknown at the forecasting time. It is to expect that longer term averages used as inputs in the proposed method will contribute to smaller input errors and the greater accuracy of the model.     

灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用

自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。     

WATER MULTIPLIERS - REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

A significant research problem is the assessment of impacts associated with growth and/or decline in a regional economy. A relevant method for analyzing such problems is the Leontief input/output model. Associated with these models are economic multipliers measuring total changes in sales, income, and employment. In this paper, the author contends resource multipliers are equally relevant. The specific form of these multipliers are defined. Water multipliers for a two-county region in central Nevada are presented and their uses described.     

Summary of 25 Years of Xylem Tracheids and Sewage/Sludge in the Sea

The Rapid Sewage/Sludge Indicator Technique (RSIT), developed during the early 1970's, responded to critical needs within the Bureau of Water Pollution Control. It enabled quick detection of contamination in ocean water and bottom sediments during sewage-related emergencies and routine monitoring. RSIT became an invaluable tool for resource management, in determining where and to what extent marine environments are impacted, and when immediate information is necessary for public health decisions.

The RSIT utilizes microscopic examination for terrestrial plant vascular tissue, especially the xylem tracheid elements, as identifiers of sewage/sludge. Not normally found in ocean waters, this material, in toilet paper and the roughage of the human diet which passes through the digestive system intact, is an indicator of human faecal contamination. Minimal training and common laboratory materials allow gross screening in five minutes. New studies by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), United States Geologic Survey (USGS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), most recently at the 106-mile dump site off the New York Bight, revalidated the technique as a rapid, inexpensive, easy to use, semiquantitative indicator both for water column and sediment samples.     

“引江济太”过程中塑化剂类污染物的输入特征和环境健康风险评价

为了解"引江济太"过程中塑化剂类污染物对贡湖的输入特征,于2013年8月对14个采样点的7种邻苯二甲酸酯类化合物(PAEs)的浓度进行采样分析,并通过美国环保署(USEPA)推荐的方法,对其环境风险进行评价.结果表明:各采样点邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)和邻苯二甲酸二环己酯(DCHP)均有检出,除采样点10、11和12外,邻苯二甲酸二乙酯(DEP)也有检出,其余4种均未检出,长江引水经望虞河进入贡湖后,DEP、DBP和DCHP浓度均有不同程度的降低,且其最高浓度均出现在望虞河长江引水处(采样点1),说明在引水过程中长江水对望虞河有明显的PAEs输入,而贡湖锡东水厂DEP浓度高于贡湖其他采样点,南泉水厂DBP和DCHP浓度高于贡湖其他采样点,金墅湾水厂PAEs浓度总体处于较低水平.环境健康风险评价结果显示:DEP的最大非致癌风险值为3.91×10-8a~(-1),未超过国际组织规定范围,而DBP的最大非致癌风险值为1.17×10-5a~(-1),超过英国皇家协会RS规定的1×10-6a~(-1),但均对人体无明显非致癌危害.     

黔中黄壤坡耕地区域降水及其氮磷输入特征

黄壤坡耕地不仅具有“黏、酸、瘦”的特点,而且水土、养分流失普遍严重,引起一系列农业面源污染环境问题。以黔中黄壤坡耕地氮磷流失长期定位监测基地为平台,于2008─2012年连续5年进行观测,研究了降水及氮磷湿沉降浓度、总量及季节性变化等特征,探明了降雨带入的氮磷养分对黄壤坡耕地养分流失的贡献,为农业生产、农业面源污染防治对策提供科学依据。结果表明：2008─2012年间,年降雨次数变幅为46~109次,年均64次;年降雨量变幅为558.4~901.5 mm,年均695.7 mm;频次降雨量变幅为6.5~15.5 mm,平均10.9 mm。5年湿沉降TN、NO3--N、NH4+-N、TP浓度变幅,分别为1.57~3.31、0.17~0.79、0.10~0.94和0.06~0.48 mol·L-1,平均值分别为1.91、0.42、0.28、0.14 mol·L-1,均与降水量呈负相关,但未达到显著水平;5年湿沉降TN、NO3--N、NH4+-N、TP输入量变幅,分别为11.19~18.47、0.96~5.47、1.22~6.65和0.42~1.34 kg·hm-2·a-1,平均值分别为14.32、3.37、2.77、1.09 kg·hm-2·a-1,TN、TP输入量与降雨量呈正相关(相关系数分别为0.774、0.707,P值分别为0.0003、0.0015)。输入量季节性变化5─8月最为集中,5─7月TN输入量为6.95 kg·hm-2,占全年TN输入量的比例高达51.1%;6─8月TP输入量为0.49 kg·hm-2,占全年TP输入量的比例高达47.4%,即冬、春季较低,夏、秋季较高。湿沉降TN、TP输入量相当于当地施肥投入的氮、磷素总量的7.54%、1.14%,因此在农业生产中制定施肥方案时,可考虑坡耕地湿沉降养分的输入,尤其是氮养分的输入。     

底泥疏浚对太湖内源及底栖生物恢复的影响

底泥疏浚对湖泊内源削减具有重要的作用,是富营养化湖泊内源治理的重要技术之一.以太湖疏浚区为对象,估算了近十余年疏浚对内源负荷的削减量,并评估了太湖北部竺山湖和梅梁湖的底泥疏浚效果.结果表明,太湖累计疏浚的4 200万m³底泥,共计清除了底泥中氮约6.26万t,总磷约1.83万t,有机质约117万t,相当于清除了蓄积于底泥中二十余年的外源污染物输入量.对于外源控制较好的梅梁湖,底泥疏浚后5 a内水质改善明显,随后出现反弹,但仍有效削减了表层底泥总氮和总磷含量.相反,对于外源输入仍较大的竺山湖,疏浚十余年后,底泥内源又回复到浚前水平.对竺山湖疏浚区开展了长达6 a的底栖生物群落跟踪评估,发现疏浚初期对底栖生物群落具有一定的影响,但浚后2 a,底栖生物密度与生物量等指标已接近浚前水平. 6 a后,疏浚区与未疏浚区的底栖生物群落多样性指数已无差别.结果也表明,底泥疏浚对湖体内源具有较好的控制效果,且疏浚效果维持程度与外源输入强度密切相关.此外,长期来看,疏浚区底栖生物群落依靠自恢复能力可达到浚前水平,疏浚不会对底栖生物群落结构造成影响.     

不同类型农户农地投入的影响因素

农户作为农业生产投入的微观主体,其农地投入行为对农业和农村经济发展影响重大.本文以湖北省江汉平原和鄂北岗地6个县(市、区)的473个农户抽样调查数据,构建逐步回归模型,分析不同类型的农户农地投入行为的影响因素.结果表明:①近年来,农户耕地的投入水平处于上升趋势,国家实施的惠农政策取得了积极成效;②相对于消费型农户而言,利润型农户的总投入水平较离;③目前农户农地投入主要是流动资本投入,固定资本投入较少,农业污染较为严重,农业机械化水平有较大的提升空间;④农户农业生产目标决定其农地投入行为:消费型农户与市场联系不太紧密,依据家庭消费需求进行生产投入决策;利润型农户与市场联系非常紧密,追求利润最大化,按照市场行情进行生产投入决策.⑤不同类型农户农地投入的影响因素存在差异:家庭特征和家庭资源禀赋是影响消费型农户农地投入的主要因素;农业生产要素市场、农产品市场和农业政策是影响利润型农户农地投入的主要因素.     

Biochemical studies on the terrestrial snail,Eubania vermiculata (müller)treated with some pesticides

Abstract

The in vivo effects of methomyl, thiodicarb and metaldehyde on total soluble proteins, total lipids and glycogen content, in addition, the activity of glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, (GOT), (GPT) glutamic pyruvic transaminase and catalase (CAT) enzymes of terrestrial E. vermiculata snails was studied. The experimental snails were treated with low concentration of 0.2% bran bait w/w of the pesticides for a period of 1,3,5,7 and 10 days. The results showed that methomyl and thiodicarb lead to significant reduction in total soluble proteins, lipids, and glycogen content, while significant increases in the activity of all enzymes tested were noted. Metaldehyde treatment showed no significant effect on total soluble proteins, lipids and GOT level, whereas a significant increase in GPT and CAT enzymes was observed. Also, metaldehyde resulted a significant reduction in glycogen content of snails.     

内抽外压式集尘器实验、数值模拟与分析

根据内抽外压式集烟尘器专利研制了一个内抽外压式集尘器,并在井下进行实验。经过3种方法测试均收到预期的的效果,司机工作区达到了国家卫生要求,由于采用外筒压风,防止了瓦斯积聚避免瓦斯爆炸。应用离散颗粒模型模拟了内抽外压式集尘器内气相流场和粉尘颗粒的运动,该集尘器不仅把矿井巷道中细微可呼吸粉尘吸收到除尘器中,又能防止了瓦斯积聚。数值模拟与实验结果的一致性表明:把内抽外压式集尘器放置在掘进机前方,由于粉尘在气流的携带下运动使掘进机司机在矿井巷道中的工作环境得到改善,减少矿工患尘肺病的概率,开发了井下集尘的新工艺、新设备。